Skip to main content

All I that I needed to know about sequestration was learned in school

On Sunday, I watched Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood on Meet the Press - He and the and other department secretaries are on the morning shows discussing sequestration. His department's example is a $1 billion cut from DOT, including $600 million from the FAA. This once unlikely scenario has become the likely policy outcome, and lessons from policy school have come back to me as this unfolds.



1: The "do-nothing" option is chosen most of the time because it's usually the easiest option, and

2: Once a policy has been adopted, that becomes the new standard.


Once the "supercommittee" was unable to come up with a mutually acceptable alternate plan back in 2011 (essentially choosing the "do nothing" option), sequestration became the new reality. Here's the trick: whenever a proposal to change a policy arises, the mix of winners and losers changes slightly - now that the sequester appears to be the likely outcome, politicians on both sides are measuring winning and losing from this point forward.

A third lesson may apply here - I first learned this one in high school, but not during class - it came from observing my classmates:

3. People and groups often need a deadline to force them to focus their efforts, and an abnormal percentage of tasks are done at the last minute, either right before or right after the deadline.

For students, this is the way of life. Wait until the last minute, and then do what it takes to (hopefully) get the job done.  Students also know that this strategy sometimes works perfectly and other times, it fails miserably.  Luckily for students, failing to get the group project together at deadline merely means a low grade, and there always seem to be opportunities for extra credit to make up for it.

Department and agency heads have been bracing for the coming cuts for months, so it won't be a surprise to them if this happens.  The question is whether the threat of mutually unappealing  budget cuts in 2011 was the best way to go. Brinkmanship probably began with two schoolboys on bicycles playing chicken, and that strategy contributed to winning the Cold War, but we are now seeing it used on a regular basis for our fiscal policy. Is this a good strategy?  History will judge that one (Good thing - social studies was my favorite elementary school class).

 What do you think about the sequester?  Are there other schoolyard strategies that may work? Like DrUrbanPolicy on Facebook and follow on Twitter, then share your thoughts on those sites or below. 

As a reminder, these are my thoughts only and do not necessarily represent the positions of any organization. The views, opinions and judgments expressed are solely my own. This essay has not been reviewed or approved by AARP, the American Planning Association or any other organization.

Comments

  1. Thanks a lot for sharing this amazing knowledge with us. Really your blog is very interesting....it contains unique information.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Efficiency and Affordability: Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs)

I haven't been posting often lately, as things have been pretty hectic.   I did receive a question the other day about  topic that I haven't spoken about here:  Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs), and it inspired me to write a quick post.  These are sometimes known as "accessory apartments," "mother-in-law suites" or "granny flats" - they are ways to provide more housing options in existing neighborhoods by allowing homeowners to build additional units on their lots.  ADU is a catch-all term for all of these situations - either units attached to existing homes or placed somewhere else on the property, say over a garage or a stand-alone in the backyard. 

They are part of the range of housing options that help to ensure that people of all ages, including older adults, can meet their needs.  AARP's model ordinance on ADUs was written by staff at the American Planning Association and was an attempt to find a set of regulations that would meet livabili…

Tales from a Condominium Association: Caps on renters and the dynamics of decision-making

As some of you know, aside from my day job developing policy and research, I am also a president of a homeowners association - specifically a multi-building condominium association.  I've been on the board for years, and I enjoy the fact that it keeps me honest - although I am looking at the wide national policy lens in the daytime, I have to face the day-to-day realities of the smallest local government in the evenings.  While I am the lead author of AARP's policy on housing issues and I am responsible for the policy direction of the American Planning Association's Planning and the Black Community Division, I am also heading up a homeowners association in an area that's been hit hard by the Great Recession.  That means that I need to think at the 30,000 foot level, but I have to keep a foot on the ground at the same time.

The latest example of this was Monday night (thanks to my TiVo, I didn't have to miss the call heard 'round the world by the replacement ref…

The "Boom" in Golden Girls-Style Shared Housing: Where’s the Beef?

NBC, Touchstone Television and their partners should be proud– it has been 22 years since the final episode aired, yet the influence of The Golden Girlsmeans that every year reporters ask about the boom in “Golden Girls Housing.”  This form of shared housing receives a great amount of attention, but we'll miss the big picture if we look for big numbers.
For the last few years, I have looked at data from the Current Population Survey (analyzed by the AARP Public Policy Institute) to count households that are all female (or all male) with at least one non-related housemate or roommate, no spouses, and no one under 50 in the home. This is the classic “Golden Girls” formula.  
The result has become familiar: a very small portion of the population lives in a “golden” situation, around one percent.  The small numbers of people in those situations means that it’s hard to figure out whether it has become more popular.  Though the percentage appears to be holding steady, the number of golden…